粤港澳大湾区创新生态系统内部耦合时空演化及空间收敛分析

在构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局下，高效协同的区域创新体系有助于将粤港澳大湾区三地建设成为具有全球影响力的科技创新中心。通过构建创新生态系统综合评价指标体系，采用耦合协调模型和空间计量模型，实证检验大湾区10个城市2007-2019年创新生态系统内部耦合协调水平、时空跃迁特征以及收敛性。研究发现，大湾区整体及各城市耦合协调度呈上升趋势，基本实现从失调衰退区到协调过渡区的转化，具体可划分为4个等级层次；大湾区创新生态系统协调耦合度存在显著的绝对β与条件β收敛趋势，即最终收敛于同一稳态水平，且城市间差距逐渐缩小。其中，经济发展水平、对外交流水平、人力资本水平对创新生态系统协调耦合度起显著正向作用。     

珠三角工业设计与工业互动比较研究：双重需求拉动与设计驱动增长的区域验证

动态比较珠三角工业发展阶段和设计水平不同的典型区域内，工业用户和最终消费者用户双重需求拉动设计创新以及设计驱动工业增长作用机制的异同，提出克服互动系统短板并因地制宜实施设计驱动转型升级的对策建议。基于SVAR建模的脉冲响应和方差分解分析发现：珠三角工业确实可以通过工业设计创新驱动实现内生性可持续增长，而设计水平的地区差异对设计驱动绩效有调节作用；工业发展质量和结构欠佳，无法有效拉动区域工业设计创新，是珠三角多数地区工业设计有效需求不足的根本原因。区域工业设计与工业互动系统的短板是缺乏内行和挑剔的最终消费者有效需求。最后基于模型稳健性检验，提出因地制宜科学实施设计驱动发展战略的对策建议。     

Online adaptive lasso estimation in vector autoregressive models for high dimensional wind power forecasting

Wind power forecasts with lead times of up to a few hours are essential to the optimal and economical operation of power systems and markets. Vector autoregression (VAR) is a framework that has been shown to be well suited to predicting for several wind farms simultaneously by considering the spatio-temporal dependencies in their time series. Lasso penalisation yields sparse models and can avoid overfitting the large numbers of coefficients in higher dimensional settings. However, estimation in VAR models usually does not account for changes in the spatio-temporal wind power dynamics that are related to factors such as seasons or wind farm setup changes, for example. This paper tackles this problem by proposing a time-adaptive lasso estimator and an efficient coordinate descent algorithm for updating the VAR model parameters recursively online. The approach shows good abilities to track changes in the multivariate time series dynamics on simulated data. Furthermore, in two case studies it shows clearly better predictive performances than the non-adaptive lasso VAR and univariate autoregression.     

不平衡时代的创新与创业研究

不平衡是新时代的基本特征。对于创新与创业而言，正是因为时代的不平衡而孕育了更多具有时代特色的创新想法和创业机会，也正是因为时代的不平衡为中国情境下的创新创业研究理论开发带来了更多挑战。在此背景下，首先，客观环境的不平衡来自创业者的主动感知，解决不平衡问题需要提高创业者的创新、创业能力，而能力的提升离不开创业认知加工和积极心理资本发挥作用。创业者通过环境扫描进行信息加工从而引发认知变革。创业团队知识和经验异质性带来了积极的心理资本。其次，合法性是创业企业在不平衡时代中得以生存和发展的"强心剂"。创业学习、关系网络都有助于企业获取合法性、解决新企业的合法性困境。创业企业战略选择和战略导向对于创业合法性也具有直接或间接的影响。最后，创业与创新融合下的商业模式创新逐渐成为不平衡时代的研究热点。商业模式创新需要适宜的资源开发、机会开发或机会-资源一体化开发行为支持，且机会、资源的开发还离不开由"环境-组织-个体"所组成的多层次影响因素发挥的联动效应。     

How markets will drive the transition to a low carbon economy

This paper investigates the driving factors behind the transition to a low carbon economy. Here, we offer a two-part analysis: First, we examine the factors leading to the current level of cleantech development. To do so, we examine the impact of country-level economic variables (real GDP, market return, and turnover) and country-level institutional variables on patent intensity. Results from this analysis show that cleantech patenting activity is fostered by a supportive institutional environment that promotes innovation and low-carbon development through carbon pricing policies, country-level public R&D expenditure and human capital. Second, we extend the notion of ‘path creation’ to map out different pathways for cleantech development on a country-level within a real options framework, and offer a corresponding valuation of cleantech patents. Our estimates of total wealth creation through the development of cleantech patents by 2050 range from US$10.16 to US$15.49 trillion dollars (13%–20% of the world GDP in 2017) with investment growth from US$2.93 to US$3.71 trillion (3.7%–4.7% of the world GDP in 2017). The results from our analysis suggest that market forces will drive the transition to a cleantech economy.     

资源依赖、制度安排与区域创新能力 —基于空间杜宾模型

区域创新能力提升是我国加快建设创新型国家、实现高质量发展的现实需求。 本文通过构建涵盖资源依赖、制度安排与区域创新能力的理论模型分析其内在关系并提出假 说，运用2000-2016年全国30个省（区、市）的面板数据与空间杜宾模型，检验三者之间的影 响及空间溢出效应。研究结果表明：（1）资源依赖程度越高，越不利于本地区创新能力提升；（2）有效率的制度安排对区域创新能力有正向促进作用；（3）从空间溢出效应来看，本地区 资源依赖程度越高，越抑制周边地区区域创新能力提升，有效的制度安排能助推周边地区创新能力提高。     

Exploring the development trend of internet finance in China: Perspective from club convergence

We first employ β-conditional convergence and log t regression tests based on nonlinear time-varying factor model and club clustering algorithm to analyze the convergence characteristics of the development level of Internet finance in 335 prefecture-level cities in China. The result of log t regression test illustrates that there is no convergence as a whole in the development level of China's Internet finance. However, seven convergence clubs and a divergent group have been formed, and the development level and growth rate of Internet finance among these convergence clubs have shown obvious differences. Moreover, we also employ the Ordered Probit to explore the formation mechanism of the convergence clubs. The results reveal that the regions with a higher level of economic development, traditional financial development, economic openness and Internet development are more inclined to converge in a club with a higher Internet finance development level. Alternatively, the regions that are interfered with more by the government or that have a lower degree of marketization, tend to converge in a club with a lower level. Finally, according to the conclusions, we propose corresponding policy recommendations for promoting the regional coordinated development of China's Internet finance.     

Functional Itô calculus†

We extend some results of the Itô calculus to functionals of the current path of a process to reflect the fact that often the impact of randomness is cumulative and depends on the history of the process, not merely on its current value. We express the differential of the functional in terms of adequately defined partial derivatives to obtain an Itô formula. We develop an extension of the Feynman-Kac formula to the functional case and an explicit expression of the integrand in the Martingale Representation Theorem. We establish that under certain conditions, even path dependent options prices satisfy a partial differential equation in a local sense. We exploit this fact to find an expression of the price difference between two models and compute variational derivatives with respect to the volatility surface.     

Bayesian selection of technology assumptions for the transformation from supply-use to input–output tables

ABSTRACT

In the construction of input–output models from supply-use tables, technology assumptions disambiguate how an industry uses inputs in the production recipe of multiple outputs. This paper uses Bayes' theorem to select technology assumptions, taking into account empirical observations. The paper presents a formulation to explore hybrids between product and industry technology assumptions in product-by-product tables. We then present Markov chain Monte-Carlo techniques to implement the Bayesian method for selecting technology assumptions. We apply the method in a case study using Eurostat supply-use tables of 2004 and 2005, exhibiting a volume of secondary products of less than 13%, and 59 products and industries per country. The results show that the choice of technology is not important, given that there is no strong evidence in favour of any of them.     

Is health care a necessity or a luxury? Evidence from urban China

This article uses a smooth transition regression (STR) model to research the income elasticity of the health care expenditure of China’s urban residents in the 1990–2013 period. The results demonstrate that if the real income of China’s urban residents that lags a period is taken as a transition variable, urban residents’ health expenditure follows an LSTR1 nonlinear two-regime model. Here, the income elasticity of health care expenditure of China’s urban residents is 1.4919 in 1990–2002 and 1.2216 in 2003–2013. Overall, the income elasticity of health care of China’s urban residents is greater than 1, indicating that health care is a luxury.